First off, I’m not a statistician, but I do have a background in engineering mathematics. What’s the difference between “Math” and “Engineering Math”? One is theoretical and the other can get you killed. This is why we engineer folk are typically uptight individuals with the need to be correct all the time. This is also why people don’t invite us to parties or only call us if “the internet” is broken.
Yes, it’s a burden, but through my work, I’ve also developed an appreciation for numbers and how they can be used to confuse and manipulate people. Truth is, numbers are just inert little smudges of graphite, pixels on a screen or bits in a database. The interpretation of the numbers is what lands them in murky water.
Why care?
Numbers are used to mislead. We have politicians, non-profits, and for-profits that fling numbers more than a 2 year old flings boogers. And, let’s be honest, most people are either afraid of numbers, or have the belief that if there’s a number in the argument, it must be true and go unchallenged. Unchallenged numbers can lead to bad decisions and bad policies. Decisions and policies which hurt more than help.
Let me give you an example:
Slavery Today’s website says that we have an estimated 21 million people enslaved in our world today. What if instead of using “21 million”, I told you that 0.3% of the world’s population was enslaved today? The perceived severity of the issue, I’d argue, is different for both statements.
What if I told you that for every visible star you see in the night sky represents roughly 4200 slaves in the world today? That’s a pretty powerful statement (well, to me).
Why does this matter?
If someone wanted to convince you that money needs to be redirected to programs to eradicate slavery world wide, they are more than likely going with the 21 million or the 4200/star statement. If they are trying to get money for another program, and are up against funding anti-slavery programs? They are going to go with the 0.3% number (assuming their number is a higher percentage). Same data - different arguments. People do these math tricks in order to bring validity to their position and/or limit or discredit others.
And wait, there’s more…..
If I asked you what the gender pay gap is, what would you say? Around 20%? Around 6%?
What if I told you both answers are correct?
How can that be? The 20% is just a base number. Add up the wages, divide and boom, you have your 20%. The math is correct. When the data is adjusted to account for education, experience, hours worked, etc (in other words, more of an apples to apples comparison), the gap is closer to the 6% range (Time has a good article explaining the details). The math is still correct. The gap is still there, but it isn’t as massive. How would this change our approach to fixing the problem if you approach it as a 6% gap vs a 20%?
Again, my main purpose is to briefly illustrate and give an appreciation that numbers aren’t always what they seem. You can’t take them at face value (pardon the expression).
So, what happens when someone starts throwing numbers at you? I have a few suggestions.
- Don’t be afraid to ask questions or look “dumb”.
- Don’t be bullied. Your money and your vote are valuable “currencies.” You have a right to ask questions and get real answers before you part with either.
- Look into what numbers the opposing argument is using.
- What is different?
- Are they using different scales?
- Ask how the number was generated and whether it is adjusted.
- Ask what they aren’t telling you.
- Trust your gut. If it smells wonky, it probably is.
- Ask opinions of others.
- Do your own research on the internet, but use multiple sources.
- Don’t write off numbers because you don’t agree with them.
- Don’t accept numbers because you agree with them.
- Take a deep breath! Numbers are more scared of you than you are of them.
I hope this helps.
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